'The rise of the rest'

Walking around the Student Union, I can’t help but notice the parallels with the international system. Essentials, a microcosm of China, the place where we buy all our goods. The Helpdesk a kind of India, the place where we receive our technical advice. It is littered with ATM machines, a substitute for the World Bank and IMF, the place where everyone gets their loans from. The Green Action Food Co-op a slightly more powerful version of Sweden, nobly trying to ethically make a difference in the world. The Old Bar and the Terrace a student version of Saudi Arabia, the place where the student body / international community receive that most important of fuels, alcohol / oil, that is most essential in keeping our alcohol / oil dependant livers / world economy ticking over smoothly. And of course, the peanut gallery, a smaller, slightly more mysterious and less open version of North Korea, the place where all the communists hang out.

But to what extent should we,  as a nation (I suppose that would make us, carrying on with the Union analogy, the Gentleman’s lavatories; we are constantly at risk of flooding and everyone who enters leaves feeling empty inside) be worried about the rise of Essentials and the Student Helpdesk, along with a whole host of other nations that seem to be on the rise? In a zero-sum world where the relative rise of one power can only mean less power,  relatively, for the rest of the powers within the world to share amongst themselves, dismissing the threats the rise of various nations pose to our own national interests and influence seems naively idealistic.  Far better to come to terms with these threats we face, than to pretend they don’t exist.

‘The Rise of the Rest’  as Fareed Zakaria describes it, will leave us with less influence over international affairs, whether that be sticking up for the rights of the Falkland Islanders, or pursuing sanctions over Iran, or sticking up for human rights abuses abroad. It will, furthermore, place even greater strain on natural resources that our modern economies sorely depend upon. It could result in diplomatic tussles and disputes, or worse, over-access to such resources, located primarily in only a few geographical areas, such as the Middle East. It could perhaps also impact us economically in other ways, such as through trade embargoes on our goods in their territory which will be increasingly lucrative as they grow in wealth.

However, I suggest we can do nothing to prevent such a shift in the balance of power taking place,  and nor should we even if we could. The economic growth in places such as China, India and Brazil  that is promoting this shift in power is the reason why so many hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. And there is still far more to do on this front. Indeed,  it seems to me that the main threats we have faced over the last few decades, those originating from Afghanistan, North Korea, Iraq and Iran,  are from nations that have no or very little stake in the international system. Affording nations such as the B.R.I.C. (Brazil, Russia, India,  and China) more responsibility, and allowing them to become shareholders of the international system, nations that would be harmed if war and instability broke out across the world, would benefit us as well as them.

I conclude that we should not forget the dominance of the West over the East is a relatively new occurrence.  One thousand years ago the East represented around two thirds of the world’s economy, while the West was languishing at below one tenth,  this continued more or less steadily to 1800, when, because of the industrial revolution and America’s rise, the East’s share shrank to just one fifth in 1980. Now it represents a third, and will continue to rise inexorably into the future. The East’s rise isn’t a break from tradition that should be resisted, but rather a return to the way it always has been, reflecting their far larger population. We can either welcome them with open arms, or meet them with clenched fists. It would be far better for all concerned that we choose the former.